Here is the
#1
most important career advice I can give:
DO NOT HAVE A RESUME FULL OF SHORT STINTS.
Roughly, more than 3 consecutive jobs with less than ~18 months tenure is career danger zone.
If you're wondering:
"How much can a CEO really be worth"
"CEO compensation is out of control AMIRIGHT?"
Well, at least in this case, the market thinks the CEO is worth $15B.
If I could teach everybody in the world one thing:
Wealth creation is not zero sum. Somebody making money does not mean that somebody else lost it. Capitalism is primarily a system of wealth creation, not wealth distribution.
The world would be better if this was understood.
Can you believe this is legal?
@mcuban
thought America would be better if we made medicine more affordable by slashing pharmacy markups.
So he did it himself. No lobbying. No new taxes. No Congress. He just built it.
Capitalism is the decentralization of control. And it works!
This weekend I hosted an AI generated dinner party.
We decided to test the limits and let ChatGPT generate the theme, menu, and even the recipes.
What ensued was surprisingly delightful.
I launched an Income Share Agreement (ISA) company in 2019.
Our company survived, but our use of ISAs did not.
Overall, I think the ISA experiment has failed and is not the revolution we hoped would transform training and education.
Here's what I learned 👇
Startup competitions are dumb.
As a startup, you’re already in a competition called “The Market”.
The only panel of judges that truly matter for your startup are called “Customers”.
Don’t waste time on heuristic status games.
.
@LondonBreed
, I just sent you the following email calling for Chesa Boudin’s resignation.
While I respect
@chesaboudin
’s idealism, his policies are a failure on their own terms.
We can no longer stand to watch career criminals go free.
@Chesaboudin
needs to resign.
Just got the new Gmail UI... Looks nice and clean! I like that they brought back a bit of color for depth and clarity between sections.
Google went a little too deep on the minimalistic aesthetic there for a while.
We used to joke
@flexport
that by the time incumbents managed to clone our product, we would be 2 versions ahead.
Boy were we right.
Today, DHL unveiled the 2017 version of Flexport's customer dashboard 😉
Tech deals that looked crazy (or even stupid) at the time, but wound up being brilliant:
📺 2006: Google buys Youtube for $1.65B
📸 2012: Facebook buys Instagram for $1B
🎥 2014: Amazon buys Twitch for $970M
Flexport is the ultimate compounding bet.
They grew from $1M in revenue in 2014 to $3.3B in 2022.
Yet, the market is big enough for them to continue growing rapidly for a decade+.
Don't bet against
@typesfast
, this company is going to $100B.
@justindross
The attempt to integrate vine into Twitter was such a huge miss. Zuckerberg's decision to keep Instagram separate looks retrospectively so smart.
This advice is based on research we've done at
@placement
.
This is the
#1
most cited red flag by hiring managers in knowledge work industries by a *very* big margin.
Instead of a frenetic sprint to read 5,000 books this year, perhaps aim for deep comprehension of an important few.
Frankly, nobody cares how many books you read. So why not focus on real learning and satisfaction with each hour spent?
You can diligence yourself out of any deal.
Be it an investment, new job, house, or spouse.
A sufficiently smart person can find a compelling, rational reason why it sucks. This is true for literally every deal.
Eventually, you just have to put the pen down and go in on faith.
Somebody please start a startup to solve this problem for me:
I would like to make improvements to the apartment I live in (with my landlords blessing), but somehow offset my investment with the property appreciation.
How? IDK, but the market should halp
Zuck's perspective on free speech is strong, nuanced and compelling.
In the long arc of history, I think he will be judged as a strong advocate for freedom.
One of my favorite quotes:
"You can't impose tolerance from the top down."
The first 50 steps to accomplishing something huge are really boring.
Send the email.
Fill out the form.
Write the code.
Take the meeting.
Draft the memo.
Do the work.
The next 5,000 steps are similar.
Today, I am beyond excited to unveil the brand new
@placement
platform.
With untold millions of Americans in transition due to COVID, we are opening up our tools & resources for all to use.
Check us out on ProductHunt!
My girlfriend is training for a marathon and does a lot of stretching.
For her birthday, I made her an excessively designed interval timer. It's now available for everybody, for free.
Go check it out!
To recap:
1. Consumers are confused by ISAs
2. And when they take the deal, they often behave poorly
3. And when they behave poorly, you don't have great recourse
4. And there's a looming regulatory threat
5. And the financial markets aren't supportive
Second, credit scores were the most predictive variable of good participant behavior for us.
But people with high credit scores tend to have better, cheaper options than ISAs.
Also, using credit scores for ISAs is... largely missing the point.
@suff_syed
This advice does not apply to people whose resumes are filled with prestigious resumes. Really almost no normal advice applies to the fortunate few with blessed backgrounds.
Annualized Personal Income in the United States is currently around $21T
According to Forbes, billionaires in the US are worth ~$4.2T
That means if we seized 100% of all billionaire's assets, we would be able to cover...
🥁🥁🥁
...2.4 months of income, once 🙃
ISAs tend to have significant adverse selection problems, stemming from two sources.
First, the lack of skin in the game leads to very poor participant behavior.
Participants haven't put anything down so it's easier to not complete the program.
This culture of boasting and celebrating working hard has got to end. It’s absolutely batshit crazy.
Money is the least efficient way to happiness
Even the value expected out of how we earn money is way out of whack.
What happened to just living.
Today is
@placement
's 1 year anniversary 🥳
"Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years" -
@BillGates
I definitely underestimated what we could do in 1 year
Here's to hoping the next 9 years exceed expectations too 🥂
The VC boom happening right now is not akin to the .com boom
It's more like the LBO, hedge fund, and PE booms that happened in prior generations:
Monumental sums of money pouring into many operations, some of which produce absurd alpha but most just reverting to the mean.
TIL America's largest construction company is owned by Germany's largest construction company, which in turn, is majority owned by Spain's largest construction company, whose largest shareholder is none other than Florentino Perez, the President of Real Madrid.
If you make $100k in SF, to keep your quality of life you only need to make:
🤠 $48k in Austin
🎶 $49k Nashville
🏔 $55k in Denver
Think about that.
If you live in SF, NYC, or LA and are ready for something new, hit us up
@placement
Second, I would never recommend staying anywhere that is mistreating you simply for the benefit of your resume. Your mental health is *much* more important.
Then, where possible, work extra hard to find a place that will accept you and support you. This may be very hard!
All of these things can be fixed. But in fixing them, we might as well just use debt instruments rather than a brand new thing.
Better than an ISA is an income-dependent loan with some minimum amount that must be paid back regardless of the program outcome.
Furterhmore, consumers were consistently confused by ISAs and had a vague sense they were exploitative.
I think ISAs are less complicated than debt, but consumers don't have experience with then.
Educating the market on a new financial instrument is a big, expensive job.
I know the common belief is, "The internet has not disrupted education. Full stop."
Yet, somehow, I've learned more on the internet since I graduated from college than I did from my entire degree.
And I did it for free. FREE.
The American economy is stronger than ever, but millions of people remain left out of recent economic prosperity.
@placement
is providing a new way to move forward. Read the full story at Techcrunch.
Thanks Josh!
@placement
we wound up changing our business model completely, so none of this is really relevant to us today.
I'm sharing my lessons here so future entrepreneurs can short-circuit their learning process.
Good luck!
The battle for Facebook right now is, "Who should get to control the information you consume?"
One side is arguing something like, "The political elite," while the other side is arguing, "Facebook"
But nobody is arguing, "The users themselves"
@paulg
What a striking visual.
On one hand, I almost certainly would prefer the aesthetics and lifestyle of living in Florence.
On the other hand, the Florence region has about 1/10th the GDP of the Atlanta metro region and is 1/3rd less productive on a per capita basis.
Tradeoffs!
But only worth it if the incumbent business is worth winning:
Buffett: "When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact."
SoftBank is learning this the hard way.
📣 Anybody have 2 extra desks in SF for my cofounder and I to crash at for a few weeks?
Reasons to consider hosting us:
🌮🤯 We are interesting to talk to at lunch
🎨🤓 We can be helpful on product stuff
🤫👍 We are pretty quiet
🇺🇸📈 We are working on something cool!
DM me! 🙏
Big news – After nearly four years of helping shape the future of global trade, I am moving on from my role as VP of Product at Flexport and will transition into a Strategic Advisor role.
Thank you
@typesfast
for bringing me along this insane ride! 🚀
"That's impossible savings. Is this real?" – one of my family members
Legitimately thankful for this business, it's going to save my loved ones a bunch of money!
San Francisco needs a rapid response team for disturbing public behavior.
We need something in between an ambulance and the police.
People screaming and flailing in the streets shouldn’t go to jail, but they shouldn’t be left alone either.
Also, participants judge educational success in many ways that don't trivially reduce to "make more money".
Generally, ISAs narrowly align the organization with this one specific outcome.
This new misalignment tends to cause problems for both the participant and the program.
If you get a chance to invest in the
@flexport
mafia and you don't, that's a mistake.
Building Flexport basically required building 5 distinct businesses at once. The people coming out of there got it done.
The lack of legal infrastructure around ISAs leads to difficult collections-related issues.
You can't ding somebody's credit score and there aren't easy legal paths for collecting.
Are you really prepared to go to small claims court? We weren't.
At
@placement
we aggregate job listings from all over the web (aggregators, corporate sites, ATS boards, etc)
The # of listings we discovered last week was down 14% week-over-week
# of new "startup jobs" are down ~25% from 2 weeks ago
"You can do anything you want, but you can’t do everything"
I'd bet that, over a sufficiently large time horizon,
@typesfast
will also do everything he wants.
"Every step of the way, to everyone around us, we should be asking the question, what are you building?"
I love this. We need to demand progress from each other.
One of the biggest problems with modern culture is that we shame people for the wrong things.
I've learned that there are exactly two failure modes in life:
1. Overthinking stuff
2. Underthinking stuff
Most people think
#2
is their dominant failure mode
But very smart people unerringly fail due to
#1
@downloadcue
1. 8 hrs of sleep
2. 30-60 mins of exercise, 3-5 times a week
3. Stop looking at email/slack after 8pm
4. Don’t work on Saturdays. At all. Ideally not Sunday either.
5. Drink lots of water, eat healthy things but don’t obsess over it
6. Get atleast one real hobby
I want a tool that lets me:
1. Label events on my calendar
2. Let me set targets on % of my time per label
3. Gives me a weekly digest email telling me how I did compared to my target
Does anything exist?
@garrytan
I mean, if you asked
@SAP
's users if they would be disappointed if they couldn't use it, most would probably say, "I would literally pay you to let me stop using it".
This question is the wrong question to ask when the user is not the buyer.
One quirk of global shipping is that ships are often registered in ("fly the flag of") a country they have no connection to
Liberia, the small West African nation, sells cheap & low-hassle registrations
It's good business... they comprise 15% of the world's ocean-going fleet!
It’s a massive waste that the artifacts of students’ learning (notes, papers, etc) mostly get trashed.
Imagine if your studying compounded on itself, accumulating in a useful, generative way.
Instead of burning the bridges upon crossing, you build new roads, forever.
Tenth, there are innumerable paths to a fulfilled life. Some are easy, some are brutally hard. Some are popular, others are totally unique.
Find the way that works for you. And ignore advice from the internet you disagree with.
Peace, love, & good luck with your careers y'all!
@balajis
I think ISAs would benefit from an equivalent of the 2 and 20 structure
~10% of the cost paid upfront (or during the duration of the service delivery)
~90% paid upon success via the income share
With a 0/100 setup current ISAs over-align educators and under-align learners
@Austen
MZ: I plan to eliminate all of my competition! *sends email*
Lawyer: *reads email and frantically runs to MZ's office* MARK! Good lord, Mark! Give me your laptop, NOW!
Lawyer: *cracks knuckles*
@paulg
This is similar to why already successful people often don't start great startups. If you're already successful, you're supposed to do something *even better*, but most great startup opportunities look *really dumb*.
What’s missing from the “I pitched 100 VCs before somebody finally got it” story:
How much changed in the biz between first pitch and first money. I doubt anybody who successfully fundraisers does it without evolving the story and biz strategy throughout the process.
Third, I agree that this signal is weak. Employers *should* seek to learn the full context.
Unfortunately, employers don't go deep on all applicants. Work history with short tenure is a top signal many employers use to sort resumes.