Reka Juhasz
@juhreka13
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AP, Vancouver School of Economics, UBC. Co-founder The . Mostly industrial policy and industrialization.
Vancouver, British Columbia
Joined February 2016
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I'm disappointed to see that
@IMFNews
took the data we shared with them and are now using it without citing us. We produced the statistics they were interested in based on this WP: .
@straightedge
@EmilyOehlsen
@VeronicaCPerezP
Industrial policy is on the rise, but new research shows that it is not a magic bullet for economic growth. Instead, fiscal policies that support innovation and technology diffusion more broadly—plus basic research—are the answer. Read our blog:
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Much has been said recently about the historical track record of industrial policy.
@ClaudiaSteinwen
and I revisit this question in the context of the 19th century in a new review paper (prepared for the Annual Review). 1/4
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To claim that "[e]conomic historians are also increasingly questioning whether state support for manufacturing did, in fact, play as decisive role in the economic development of East Asia and the West as is commonly assumed" is simply wrong.
A short thread 1/4.
Right, thread time. My latest for
@TheEconomist
looks at the global
#manufacturing
delusion. As a German, I have some experience dealing with people who fall for it.
Don't be those people. /1
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@straightedge
and I are so excited for the opportunities this opens up for research on industrial policy. We will be posting about positions and more soon.
Congratulations to VSE’s Dr. Réka Juhász (
@juhreka13
) and Oxford’s Dr. Nathan Lane (
@straightedge
) for receiving a transformative grant from the Alfred P. Sloan foundation (
@SloanFoundation
) to expand The Industrial Policy Group. Read about the award here:
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I am looking for a full-time predoc to work with me on new and ongoing projects on industrial policy and industrialization past and present at UBC VSE starting summer 2022. Come to Vancouver for the vibrant intellectual community and a wonderful city.
@econ_ra
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An update on this: I had an email conversation with the authors
@IMFNews
and the post was updated with correct attribution. We all make mistakes - it's a timely reminder to treat others' work with care.
I'm disappointed to see that
@IMFNews
took the data we shared with them and are now using it without citing us. We produced the statistics they were interested in based on this WP: .
@straightedge
@EmilyOehlsen
@VeronicaCPerezP
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I sat down with the excellent
@_jeffguo
@planetmoney
to talk in plain English about industrial policy. What it is, why do it and why it’s been so controversial in econ. We touch on Bidenomics, EAsia, state capacity and more.
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Hi
#EconTwitter
! What is the future of work from home? We have a new (short!) paper with
@mara_squi
and Nico Voigtlaender on this question. Punchline: work from home may not be here to stay just yet. A short summary of our findings. . 1/n
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Applications for the PhD in Econ at UBC are due Dec 15. It is an all round great program with an incredible Women in Econ group run by PhD students. I have been so impressed with their ideas and initiative for making the program and profession work better for them. Apply soon!
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Research on historical episodes of industrial policy is mixed of course, but new work is actually pretty supportive.
@ErnestLiuEcon
(QJE 2019) and
@straightedge
(cond. acc. QJE) both find a sizeable positive role for industrial policy in E-Asia. 2/4.
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This piece by
@theGPIdotorg
is great. Failure is a feature of industrial policy, not a bug.
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The people I know working in this area (myself incl.) would welcome more serious research and discussion, sympathetic and critical alike. What seems less helpful is writing it all off as silly and misguided. 4/4.
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My work on 19th century France (AER 2018) shows "accidental" industrial policy during the Continental System had positive effects.
3/4
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The message should be loud and clear: economists, we need to engage seriously with industrial policy.
Our work (
@juhreka13
and
@VeronicaCPerezP
) on industrial policy being covered in the
@WSJ
this week.
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@ClaudiaSteinwen
and I wrote a piece trying to clarify what we actually know about the historical track record of industrial policy in the 19th c. Short version: the case for infant industry is strong. IP in the 19th c was also not just (not mostly?) about tariffs.
NEW:
@juhreka13
and
@ClaudiaSteinwen
evaluate the growing literature on 19th century industrial policy and possible paths for future research.
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Last week,
@nytimes
did an amazing episode on why Tesla went to China and what happened next (). Today,
@Noahpinion
tells part 2: Why do Chinese EV firms outcompete Tesla *in China* today. Hint: it’s partly about industrial policy.
The China Cycle:
- A Western company puts factories in China
- Chinese companies appropriate its technology
- The Western company is squeezed out of the Chinese market
- The Chinese companies go overseas and outcompete the Western company
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We discuss other policies that look very modern: state led tech acquisition, infrastructure dev., IPR, human capital dev, low industrial input tariffs, subsidies, export promotion, and more. 3/4
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New work shows support for some of these policies, though there are areas where research has only begun to scratch the surface. There is much to be done! 4/4
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The CfP for the European Commission's 2024 conference is up. The theme is "Europe in a changing world". Industrial policy and geoeconomics are front of mind. The submission deadline is May 15. Apply and share widely!
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Industrial policy was widely deployed using many instruments. Tariffs were not the only instrument used, and may be much less important than economists imagine. 2/4
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My amazing co-author
@straightedge
wrote a great summary of our new WP on industrial policy (joint with the fantastic Emily Oehlsen and
@VeronicaCPerezP
). Read Nathan's summary and admit
@VeronicaCPerezP
to your PhD. She is simply phenomenal (and not even in grad school yet).
Excited to share a study I have been working on with
@juhreka13
& our amazing coauthors Emily Oehlsen +
@VeronicaCPerezP
We use machine learning to create text-based indices of industrial policy use around the🌍 - something we dont have data on!
🧵1/N
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What an amazing public good! Outside of course codes, general advice applies more broadly for aspiring econ PhD students.
For UBC undergrads: I have updated my recommended courses:
Now with more CS/ML classes, which will become increasingly important in the next decade. Remember, CS != coding
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A new collection of essays on industrial policy (in German) published in
@APuZ_bpb
.
@ClaudiaSteinwen
and I wrote a piece about learning from historical experience with IP.
Neue APuZ online:
#Industriepolitik
mit Holger Görg
@kielinstitute
,
@hankrainer
, Sabine Stephan
@boeckler_de
, Ralf Ahrens
@zzfpotsdam
, Michael Grömling
@iw_koeln
,
@inumanak
,
@ClaudiaSteinwen
und
@juhreka13
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@hafrouzi
and I are hiring a shared pre-doc! Come to NYC and work with us on topics in macro, trade, econ history and growth. The search is global. Apply soon, as the position starts in July.
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@arpitrage
@straightedge
@ErnestLiuEcon
@ALashkaripour
@lugovskyy
20+ years after Rodriguez and
@rodrikdani
(2000), I think we are still learning this lesson. There isn't a yes/no answer to "does industrial policy work?".
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@arpitrage
@straightedge
@ErnestLiuEcon
@ALashkaripour
@lugovskyy
@rodrikdani
@straightedge
,
@rodrikdani
and I have an Annual Review piece in the works which tries to makes sense of the new theory and empirics. It's an exciting time to be in the field!
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Surprised yard space is a bottleneck in cargo handling at LA and Long Beach? Our paper on port development (with
@C_Ducruet
, Dávid Nagy,
@ClaudiaSteinwen
) shows how the land intensity of containerization matters for port cities and the global economy:
It seems that everyone now agrees that the bottleneck is yard space at the container terminals. The terminals are simply overflowing with containers, which means they no longer have space to take in new containers either from ships or land. It’s a true traffic jam.
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Send us your papers on history, trade and development. Deadline is September 15.
2023 RIDGE DECEMBER FORUM
Workshop on Towards Sustainable Growth
Submit your paper:
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We find that this measure is negatively associated with the share of work from home in February 2020 (pre-pandemic), but has NO effect in May 2020 (during lockdown). This suggests workers/firms were ignoring the cost side due to the public health hazard of on-site work. 4/n
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@KaiGehring1
@KaiGehring1
, sure.
Here is Liu (2019)
Here is Lane (2022)
Here is my paper from 2018:
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@business
illustrates the risks of a reactive stance to US industrial policy. Canada can't match the breadth and generosity of the IRA. Formalizing a small set of priorities as explicit industrial policy is more likely to succeed than the current approach which looks piecemeal.
“The debate is about how to intervene, not whether intervention is necessary,” says economist
@juhreka13
, co-founder of the Industrial Policy Group.
We spoke to
@business
on the industrial policy debate.
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Once the public health risk subsides, the cost side should matter once again. Work from home may not be here to stay just yet. Comments welcome, data and replication files on our website. n/n
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Many observers are stuck equating IP with outdated forms of deployment. IP != protectionism or dirigisme. If your policy is purposefully changing the composition of economic activity, that’s IP.
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Other UBC colleagues also hiring:
@krhwagner
,
@sambnorris
,
@munirsquires
,
@felipev84
,
@krhwagner
, Gorkem Bostanci, Jamie McCasland, Heather Sarsons, Victor Couture.
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There is an info session tomorrow at 10am PT for VSE PhD econ admissions. Find out more about why should consider applying to do a PhD with us!
📚 Interested in studying economics at the graduate level in Canada? 📷Chat with us on Tuesday, November 28 | 10 AM PST | Register here:
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@danjimenezs
@straightedge
@IMFNews
@EmilyOehlsen
@VeronicaCPerezP
Actually, given that our WP is unpublished, we only gave them the advanced/emerging breakdown so the only thing they did was plot the numbers we provided.
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@gimpullitti
@Trade__Talks
@straightedge
I’m a big fan of
@Trade__Talks
and I learnt a lot from this episode, but recent scholarship on industrial policy in East Asia has really debunked the myth repeated here that industrial policy can never work anywhere. A host of recent papers show the opposite. Ask
@straightedge
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... but organizational barriers make the switch costly. We focus on one organizational aspect: how to coordinate workers under the new working arrangement? We construct a proxy at the industry level for the need to coordinate across workers today. 3/n.
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@arpitrage
@straightedge
@ErnestLiuEcon
@ALashkaripour
@lugovskyy
@arpitrage
, this is a good point! But I don't see this as tension, but rather richness.
@ErnestLiuEcon
is mostly theory, and finds sizeable positive effects. Choi and Levchenko (2023) also find sizeable effects in Korea through the lens of a model.
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We draw parallels between two settings: the move from home to factory-based production during the Industrial Revolution and the current one. Both are characterized by a similar trade-off: new technologies (mechanization / ICT) boost the productivity of the new setup ... 2/n
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@AmandaGregg711
Mitchell: Intl Historical Statistics p. 673. I just checked that they’re for Imperial Russia excl. Finland.
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@TobiasSalz
@claudferraz
@ubcVSE
You guys should come visit! Better slopes than Hunter Mt. 🤣 We should get everyone together again.
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@LucioCastro_
@MarkMuro1
@straightedge
@rodrikdani
@joeparilla
@xavbriggs
@Rohan_Sandhu
@RanaForoohar
@byHeatherLong
@MattHourihan
@RobAtkinsonITIF
@fstockman
The episodes are as context-specific as any other paper that studies a particular episode. It’s the price we pay for identification. Some, but not all are historical. We discuss evaluation of contemporary IP from EU and China. It’s hard for me to see how that together = shaky.
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@arpitrage
@straightedge
@ErnestLiuEcon
@ALashkaripour
@lugovskyy
Different theories capture different aspects of reality. The empirical lit. also shows richness in terms of what matters where.
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@raphamartins11
@snaidunl
@straightedge
@EricVerhoogen
@wwwojtekk
@xftrebbi
@WhyNationsFail
I think export was “disciplined” and firms followed IP partly because the govt could credibly commit to consequences of failure that a democracy cannot.
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@snaidunl
@EricVerhoogen
@wwwojtekk
@xftrebbi
@WhyNationsFail
I thought a big part of South Korea’s industrial policy relied on forcing firms to enter certain sectors. How does that play out under democracy?
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@straightedge
& I are looking for an RA. Details below.
🖥️ RA Announcement 🖥️
@juhreka13
& I are looking for machine learning/NLP RAs to work on this project (+ beyond).
Knowledge (love!) of coding and some knowledge of classification problems is a must.
More information below 👇
CC
@econ_ra
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@COdendahl
@straightedge
@MSchularick
@rodrikdani
@COdendahl
, I think in general, you're right that a focus on manufacturing is overemphasized, but with decarbonization and semiconductors in particular, there are other justifications (climate change and ntl security) -- both of which entail a huge externality.
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@mausamiitb
@straightedge
@VeronicaCPerezP
That’s right. India is another country in which we find extremely broad targeting.
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Only truly great pieces challenge your take on current events. The Obama Doctrine
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@jamesfeigenbaum
@jenniferdoleac
Indeed, we haven't posted the draft yet, but it is coming soon!
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A way to give directly to those in need in Ukraine.
A great opportunity to help Ukrainians in a besieged city (Sumy), organized by me, my second cousin Elena, and her husband Anatoly (who are both in Sumy with their families).
TLDR: we're doing a mini-GiveDirectly. Please RT!
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For developing countries I see this as the broader view on what some form of infant industry policy could achieve if done right
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@NNrehman
@nberpubs
@rodrikdani
@ClaudiaSteinwen
I missed this! Sorry. It’s a good question. I think it depends on the policy studied and the methodology. Traditionally, I think it’s been most closely related to trade but that may change as the tools used to conduct IP change. It’s has links to IO, macro, dev, PE and public
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@straightedge
@AlexanderDonges
@arpitrage
@ErnestLiuEcon
@ALashkaripour
@lugovskyy
It does make me more skeptical that infant industries will thrive absent state intervention. I don’t imagine that implementation is easy, and I am aware of failures (as well as successes).
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@JohnMcL47290294
@nberpubs
Yes, actually the two results are not straightforward to compare. The most important difference in our view is that our unit of analysis is the city, where the crowd out of population due to the land intensity of containerization may be more relevant.
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@noahopinion
Textbook first-mover advantage applies well to the case of developing countries, more shaky for those at the frontier
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@TradeDiversion
Thank you, Jonathan! You managed to do an infinitely better job in one tweet of presenting our punchline than I did in 5. And thanks for your work on the feasibility measure, which we leveraged heavily both in constructing our coordination measure and the analysis.
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I agree that the political economy challenges with infant industry are huge
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@mattsclancy
That’s a great point. Neither technology nor organizational practices are static and we would expect them to evolve as you say. It’s a great suggestion to look at this over the course of the pandemic and we will do that. Thanks!
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Orban is going after CEU. Straight out of Putin's playbook, but this is happening within the EU.
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France not competitive with Britain in cloth, but hard to see how they would have moved into factory based manufacturing so early otherwise
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@pseudoerasmus
Raw cotton imports (per-capita) from Mitchell for Europe up to 1850 show BG and FR easily largest.
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@straightedge
@AlexanderDonges
@arpitrage
@ErnestLiuEcon
@ALashkaripour
@lugovskyy
I think the paper is relevant to the discussion bc it shows empirical evidence for the infant industry argument. Does this argument apply universally? Of course not. Does it imply we should use war/blockade/tariffs to foster infant industries? No.
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@noahopinion
Which is not to say the state plays no role in fostering innovation (as opposed to technology adoption) at the frontier
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@noahopinion
I would differentiate between the case for an infant industry argument for developed and developing countries.
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