Leonie Wenz
@Leonie_Climate
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Head of *climate decisions* research group @PIK_Climate , member @Junge_Akademie & @CESifoNetwork , former postdoc @AREBerkeley // climate economics
Potsdam
Joined December 2019
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Pinned Tweet
What's the economic cost of climate change? Here's the open-access link to our recent
@Nature
paper w/
@KotzMaximilian
@ALevermann
and - finally - my own short summary below:
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"Rain stops gain" – our study is this week’s
@Nature
cover story! There’s a lot of focus on temperature impacts but much less is known about the macroeconomic costs of precipitation changes. Well, here’s some evidence from the past 40 years and more than 1500 regions worldwide:
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We didn't think we had to explain this to an economics professor but ...
This paper is odd:
An old friend taught me to ignore text and focus on equations instead.
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Moral of the story: credible scientific debate needs a proper forum, not rants on twitter.
The moral of this story: Credible economics is published in economics journals.
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High-income countries are most severely affected. By destabilizing our climate, we compromise our prosperity.
With my fantastic colleagues
@KotzMaximilian
and
@ALevermann
@PIK_Climate
Study:
Press release:
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More annual rainfall is generally good but only if it’s distributed in the right way. More rainy days and more extreme daily rainfall events harm the economy. Climate change will make this worse as rainfall extremes are intensifying almost everywhere due to global warming.
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Very happy about being listed among Germany‘s Top 40 under 40 this year!
PIK Forscherin
@Leonie_Climate
gehört zu Deutschlands „Top 40 unter 40“
@capitalMagazin
. Herzliche Glückwünsche! 💐💐 (€)
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It’s not just the impacts of climate change that are highly unequally distributed. It’s also the possibilities to adapt. Even within the same city, less privileged people have fewer means to protect themselves. Our new study based on subway data from NYC⬇️
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Panel regressions of the type used by Burke (and us) identify impacts of temperature on output using temporal variation, they don't argue that Africa is poor because it's hot. Basic distinction between a panel and cross-section!
Climate determinism is at odds with the observations.
Singapore is hot and rich. Bhutan is cold and poor.
The two halves of Hispaniola or the Korean Peninsula have roughly the same climate but very different levels of development.
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We‘ve just published a detailed description of our DOSE data set that contains all reported data on economic output at admin1-level that we could find, covering 1,661 regions in 83 countries from 1960 to 2020. w/
@KotzMaximilian
@mkalkuhl
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In our new
@PNASNews
study we show that day-to-day temperature variability has changed with distinct global patterns over the past 65 years due to rising GHG concentrations.
@ALevermann
@PIK_Climate
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Twitter can be a tough place - especially when it’s either very hot or very cold outside. - This is what our ML-supported analysis of 4 billion tweets from 773 US cities shows. Published today as cover story in
@TheLancetPlanet
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We regress a change in GDP on a change in temperature, i.e. a flow on a flow.
The Burke specification also regresses a flow on a stock, the sort of imbalance that your econometrics teacher has warned you about.
See Kahn et al. for a more technical discussion
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We discuss the distinction between forecasting and projections extensively in the paper. How else should we explore possible future scenarios if not informed by what has happened in the past?
Recall that the main problem with their specification is that it cannot be used for forecasting.
They cite a paper that shows you cannot use it for forecasting.
And they use it for forecasting -- while arguing in the same paper that you cannot do that.
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Friderike Kuik
@ecb
und ich haben das Kapitel zu den ökonomischen Folgen und Risiken beigesteuert. Fazit: 3 Grad kämen uns auch wirtschaftlich teuer zu stehen - deutlich teurer als ambitionierter Klimaschutz.
@PIK_Klima
Laut Weltklimarat
#IPCC
steuern wir mit der aktuellen Klimapolitik auf eine mehr als 3 Grad wärmere Welt zu.
Wie sieht die aus? Und was können wir tun?
Heute wurde das Buch in Berlin vorgestellt, herausgegeben von Klaus Wiegandt.
18 Wissenschaftler als Autoren. Leseempfehlung!
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Equation (10) is clearly not equation (4) in disguise, one relates changes in GDP to changes in temperature, the other to temperature levels.
And then something weird happens.
They estimate Equation (10).
Equation (10) is Equation (4) in disguise.
They do the thing they argue against.
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Richard has missed that the moderating variable of the interaction terms is time-invariant, i.e. it will be absorbed by the unit fixed-effects if included separately and therefore does not need to be included. No interpretations wrecked...
There is another problem.
Equation (10) has an interaction term but omits one of its base terms. Again, this is something your econometrics teacher told you, you should never ever do.
This wrecks the interpretation of the estimated coefficients and ruins forecasts.
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... we find a 19% reduction in GDP on global average in 2049 compared to world w/o climate change. These losses are 'committed', i.e. a result of our past emissions. This is 6x more than the mitigation cost required to achieve the Paris Climate agreement!
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Solar panels are contagious: The more of my neighbors got a solar panel, the more likely I'm of having one, too. Check out our new paper out today in
@SciReports
on the role of peer effects for climate decisions. With Kelsey Barton-Henry &
@ALevermann
1/4
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We find that there’s more hate on Twitter - both, in absolute and relative terms - on days where daily max temperatures are outside a „feel-good-window“ of 12-21C (54-70F). The precise window varies a bit across climate zones but temperatures above 30C (86F) spur hate everywhere.
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Erratic daily weather slows down our economy – check out our new paper on the economic impact of day-to-day temperature variability published today in
@NatureClimate
; with Max Kotz, Annika Stechemesser,
@mkalkuhl
,
@ALevermann
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Almost all regions suffer losses, already in the near-term, but there's also a huge inequality dimension with regions least responsible for climate change being most strongly affected:
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We make 3 contributions: 1) Assess macroeconomic losses at subnational scale based on data from 40y & >1600 regions worldwide, 2) account for temp + rainfall variability & extremes, 3) empirically constrain + consider persistence of damages➡️this all raises estimates quite a lot:
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In our 2022
@Nature
study we found i.a. that extreme rainfall puts quite a strain on economic growth. In this new study, led again by
@KotzMaximilian
, we find that the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall increases even more than expected under climate change ⬇️
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Nighttime light data reveal lack of full recovery after hurricanes in Southern US
My new paper with Kelsey Barton Henry
@PIK_Climate
now published in Environmental Research Letters
@IOPenvironment
via
@IOPPublishing
Some details below (1/3)
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... and the link to a great News&Views by
@matteocoronese
on our study and
@PaulWaidelich
@SISeneviratne
et al.'s related work that came out the very same day in
@NatureClimate
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Hotter days bring out hotter tempers - nice coverage of our research in
@washingtonpost
by
@AmudalatAjasa
.
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New paper in
@CommsEarth
! We examine how different options for implementing the EU carbon border tax would affect the EU’s trade partners … and how a clever recycling of the revenue could foster global climate cooperation.
#CBAM
with
@M_Jakob_Berlin
@MCC_Berlin
EU border tax on
#CO2
: huge opportunity to tackle
#climatechange
if revenue generated supports low- & middle-income countries in transition towards clean industries. New study with PIKs
@Leonie_Climate
, Timothé Beaufils et al.
#cbam
@UniLeidenNews
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Very happy and honored that Timothé Beaufils‘ and my paper has been awarded the Sir Richard Stone Prize this year! In the paper, we propose a simple algorithm to project the future evolution of global trade linkages (MRIO tables) under different scenarios.
Sir Richard Stone Prize 2023 🏆 The winner is Timothé Beaufils & Leonie Wenz. A scenario-based method for projecting multi-regional input–output tables. Check it
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New study by
@cwcallahan45
and
@jsmankin
on the economic impacts of heatwaves - adding to our growing understanding of the ‚true‘ cost of climate change. Great to see that it is based on DoSE, our MCC-PIK Database of Subnational Economic Output w/
@mkalkuhl
,
@MaxKotz
NEW: Human-caused increases in heat waves have cost the world economy trillions of dollars since the early 90s. Paper with
@jsmankin
out today in
@ScienceAdvances
!
(1/n)
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@ManjaSchuele
@PIK_Klima
@Junge_Akademie
@bbaw_de
@Leopoldina
Vielen Dank! Ich freue mich sehr und bin gespannt auf die Arbeit in der Jungen Akademie.
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… with strong and unequal effects on ecological and socio-economic systems around the world, compare our recent
@NatureClimate
study
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Looking forward to presenting our work on the economic costs of climate change at the SWEEP webinar series tomorrow!
What are the economic costs of climate impacts?
@Leonie_Climate
presents new findings on subnational economic output (1500 regions in 77 countries) at the SWEEP webinar series,
@lolow225
moderates.
tomorrow 3pm CEST
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If these rises continue, day-to-day temperature variability is projected to increase by up to 100% at low latitudes and decrease by 40% at northern high latitudes by 2100 …
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#SupplyChainCrisis
: „Das alles wirkt wie ein gigantisches Dominospiel, bei dem um den Globus herum ein Stein den nächsten zum Fallen bringt.“ - genau diese Dominosteine können durch Klimaextreme angestupst werden, zeigt unsere Forschung,zB mit
@ALevermann
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This points to limits in adaptation and sheds light on a yet underestimated societal impact of climate change: conflict in the digital sphere with implications for both, the mental health of affected users and societal cohesion. With
@AStechemesser
and
@ALevermann
@PIK_Climate
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How can trade policy support the climate agenda? We explore this in
@ScienceMagazine
policy forum. Lead author
@M_Jakob_Berlin
has summarized the key points below. Full article: , press release by
@MCC_Berlin
:
Is
#borderadjustment
,
#CBAM
a sufficient incentive to join a
#climateclub
to lever more climate action? We rather see them as one of 5 ways in which trade policy can support the climate agenda. A thread on our Science Policy Forum article ():
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Our paper on the economic consequences of a no-trade-deal Post-Brexit scenario - now published in
@PLOSONE
with
@ALevermann
@SvenWillner
@K_Kuhla
"We provide an economic shock simulation of the immediate aftermath of a post-Brexit no-trade deal scenario by computing the time evolution of more than 1.8 million interactions between more than 6600 economic actors in the global trade network." w/o covid
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Now out: handbook on trade policy and climate change, edited by
@M_Jakob_Berlin
, illuminating many different important aspects in the context of trade and climate.
@SvenWillner
and I contributed a chapter on global supply chains in a warming world.
New edited volume with contributions from world leading experts on trade policy and climate change just out – a thread:
()
@mmehling
@ClaraBrandi
@BaldwinRE
@vispete
@delbeke_jos
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Interesting panel discussion on how to measure climate change impacts and biodiversity loss (and their interlinkage). Thanks for inviting me to Frankfurt!
How do we measure and monitor environmental dependencies, risks, and impact? We are looking forward to the discussion with researchers from climate science, economics, biodiversity, and financial practitioners:
#SSWCFrankfurt2022
@PIK_Climate
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@Simon_W_Fuchs
@DAAD_Germany
@KaiSiedenburg
@Junge_Akademie
Dem kann ich mich nur anschließen. Vielen herzlichen Dank!
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This peer effect is more important than a host of socio-economic and demographic variables that we also considered. It decreases exponentially the farther away the panels are and is more pronounced in low-income neighborhoods. 3/4
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Using data from satellite imagery and US census for Fresno, CA, and employing machine learning, we find that the number of solar panels within the shortest distance from a house is the most important factor in determining the likelihood of that house having a solar panel. 2/4
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Very nice coverage of our temperature-hate speech study by Lan Wei in
@lemonde_planete
w/
@AStechemesser
and
@ALevermann
@PIK_Climate
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Our findings suggest that seeding solar panels in areas where few exist, may flip a community – it’s kind of a social tipping point, a good one this time. Which underlines the importance of researching climate decisions to identify such positive social tipping points. 4/4
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