Leon Simons
@LeonSimons8
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Plain climate science & communication. Mission: To understand & protect the home planet. Innovation, energy & health entrepreneur. Board Club of Rome NL
The Netherlands
Joined September 2010
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Last Seen Profiles
Pinned Tweet
This might be the year everything changes, as those who don't count joules and radiative fluxes are too starting to feel the heat from reducing air-pollution.
Many great scientists have tried to inform on this in the past decades (e.g. James Hansen, James Lovelock, Paul Crutzen
It cannot be re-stated enough that
@LeonSimons8
has been the primary scientific voice pushing the narrative about the impacts of reduced sulfate aerosols on ocean temperatures. I'm grateful to see his tireless efforts finally being discussed by scientists and global media.
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Please don't kill peaceful protesters for blocking your vehicle!
You don't have to stay calm, but assault is illegal.
Protesters don't like that they have to do this either.
But they are desperate because nothing really worked the past 40 years.
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Calling it!
The first half of April 2024 was easily the warmest April 1-15 on record according to Copernicus ERA5 data. We would somehow need to have *only* the 6th warmest April 16-30 to avoid setting a full monthly record for April.
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Remember Hurricane Katrina?🌀
That was 2005.
2024 will be a year to remember!
The Atlantic Ocean has a lot to say right now. And none of it is particularly good. My take on the deep Atlantic heat – which blows May 2005 out of the water – how it could impact hurricane season, and how it's affecting us today via
@CC_Yale
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😳WHAT THE F*CK😳
Normally I don't swear, but this is totally crazy.
Global temperature is 0.9°C higher than normal.
This is the highest anomaly ever and we are about 1.5 month away from the annual global peak surface air temperature.
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Update:
The driver lost his license and his job.
And will have to appear in front of a judge.
There are no winners in this.
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"This can't be"
"This can't be true"
"Acapulco has been destroyed"
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This is what the 30 million tonnes of ice that Greenland loses every hour looks like, if it were positioned next to the Eiffel tower before melting
Every two minutes, Greenland loses a million tons of ice.
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🔥📈BREAKING
@NASA
📈🔥
The Earth Energy Imbalance from NASA satellite data broke through 1.8 W/m² (12-month mean)!
This is faster than I expeced.
More than many experts thought possible.
I called this the most important graph in the world.
A lot more heat is accumulating!
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Have they tried punching or kicking the water?
That works great with protesters.
🤦♂️
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Flash floods often don't come with much of a warning, see this from Oman:
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For decades this area has been kept relatively cool by sulfur emissions from ships.
But this changed in 2020.
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🔥🌍📈BREAKING
@NASA
📈🌍🔥
The Earth's Energy Imbalance from NASA satellite data reached 1.97 W/m² (12-month mean)!!
I called this the most important graph in the world.
This helps to explain all the records currently being broken around the word!
1/
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This is so crazy.
The Northern Hemisphere used to radiate more heat to space than it absorbed from the sun.
The difference was made up for by heat transported north from the Southern Hemisphere through (mainly the Atlantic) oceans and atmosphere.
Around 2014 the amount of
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This total madness happening to the 40,000,000 km² of the North Atlantic Ocean surface is getting worse, as we expected.
Many are still in denial.
But we are all finding out together as we go.
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All monthly records are being broken simultaneously.
🌍🌡📈June surface air temperatures will be highest on record.
🌊🌡📈Global Sea Surface Temperatures will be record high.
🧊➡️🌊Global Sea Ice will be record low.
This is not normal!
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BREAKING!
NASA data shows our Earth is heating at unprecedented speed: 1.64 W/m²
Another 12-month EEI record (from Mar21-Feb22). That's a lot of additional energy in the Earth's system, available to heat oceans, land and atmosphere, melt ice and increase sea levels.
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Do you remember yesterday's global surface air temperature record?
It just got shattered again:
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On not staying calm:
Last month I almost died.
7 years and a day after my brother died in a traffic accident, I was almost run over by a car reversing full speed while I walked behind it.
I got very angry.
Was told to "calm down".
Sometimes we shouldn't be told to calm down.
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@bethanyshondark
Ambulances have these lights and sirens with which they can make protesters aware of their presence.
Protesters could let the ambulance go and save that life.
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What happened last month in the Eastern part of the North Atlantic Ocean is beyond extreme.
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🌎🌡📈
ΔT +2.06 °C !!
This is what uncharted territory looks like.
The first time that the global temperature anomaly has broken through +2.0 °C, for a single day in observational history.
Much more to come in the months ahead.
Provisional ERA5 global temperature for 17th November from
@CopernicusECMWF
was 1.17°C above 1991-2020 - the warmest on record.
Our best estimate is that this was the first day when global temperature was more than 2°C above 1850-1900 (or pre-industrial) levels, at 2.06°C.
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As scientists, we are increasingly being asked to tell the public the truth about the crises we face in simple and direct terms. The truth is that we are shocked by the ferocity of the extreme weather events in 2023. We are afraid of the uncharted territory that we have now
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😳What the f*ck😳
Sometimes I can't help myself and swear.
Two months ago, I thought I'd do something ridiculous and plot the Super El Niño trend of 2015 forward for Sea Surface Temperatures, see dashed lines in red (2023) and green (2024).
I turns out that we are largely
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🌊🔥THIS IS NOT F*CKING FINE 🔥🌊
either.
Like the:
🌊🌡📈Record Sea Surface Temperatures
🌍🌡📈 Record high air temperatures
🧊➡️💧Record low sea ice extent.
All happening globally the same days.
What was quite clear to some the past 3 years, is now clear for all to see.😔
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How long until people wake up?
We need to learn to live in this +1.5°C climate.
And prepare for a lot more warming in the pipeline.
Because after decades of warnings, the only emissions that are being reduced are those that were hiding much of the warming.
Monthly Temperature anomalies from pre-industrial:
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Why is 2023 so F*cking hot?
Because our planet is now absorbing 2.2 W/m² more heat from the sun than it did the first decade of this century.
And because the extra greenhouse gases keep most of that additional heat on Earth.
This is the most important graph in the world:
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Yesterday was the first day CO₂ at Mauna Loa was 425 ppm. This is:
-likely the first time in the past 800,000 years.
-possibly not seen in over 3 million years (mid-pliocene warm period).
-A CO₂ forcing equal to 2.5-4°C of warming and 5-25 meters higher global sea level.
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🔥🌊The whole 40,000,000 km² of the North Atlantic Ocean is 0.7°C warmer than ever on this date!🌊🔥
And 1.3°C warmer than average!😳📈
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@bethanyshondark
The driver almost killed one or two people in this video, and you are making up some fairy tale for the protesters to be guilty of involuntary manslaughter?
This video brings out a lot of strange responses..
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Today I was asked why I don't join in blocking traffic to demand more climate action, knowing what I know.
I just don't feel like I could compete with this:
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Net-zero CO₂ by 2050 is possible if:
-8,500 coal plants stop burning coal.
-we stop heating homes.
-we stop driving the 1.4 billion cars in the world.
-planes stop flying 100,000 times a day.
-we stop eating tens of billions of animals per year.
-we stop shipping stuff.
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The most important graph in the world.
Two years ago NASA showed the world that the rate of global heat uptake had doubled since 2005.
It barely made the news.
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I like to imagine a world where people care as much about the North Atlantic Ocean, as about a small vessel lost inside of it.
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🌊🌡️📈
I made a mistake updating the North Atlantic Sea Temperature Anomaly graph today.
It's even worse:
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@Aristos_Revenge
Or they have been following the science.
🔥📈BREAKING
@NASA
📈🔥
The Earth Energy Imbalance from NASA satellite data broke through 1.8 W/m² (12-month mean)!
This is faster than I expeced.
More than many experts thought possible.
I called this the most important graph in the world.
A lot more heat is accumulating!
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The crazy Sea Surface Temperatures of the North Atlantic Ocean quire an extended y-axis yet again.
It's getting harder and harder to find words to describe how crazy this really is.
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Still asleep?
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🌡📈🔥
The Northern Hemisphere is now +0.4°C warmer than ever observed!
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Last month I almost died.
7 years and a day after my brother died in a traffic accident, I was almost run over by a car reversing full speed while I walked behind it.
I got very angry.
Was told to "calm down".
Sometimes we shouldn't be told to calm down.
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15,000 scientists agree that we are in a climate emergency!
And the data tells the story by itself:
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It's internal variability, they said.
It will go back down within weeks, they said.
Talking about increased warming from desulphurisation promotes geoengineering and inaction, they said.
It's just El Niño, they said.
People need to be accurately informed about risks!
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June was crazy, July will likely be worse:
🌍🌡📈Surface air temperatures highest on record.
🌊🌡📈Global Sea Surface Temperatures highest.
🧊➡️🌊Global Sea Ice lowest.
For all days of July so far, with large margins:
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The global climate is nothing like the average of 1990-2020 anymore.
Let alone like the pre-industrial climate.
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🌎📉🌍
I did some basic energy and water calculations on the scary AMOC study (1) that's making headlines, so you don't have to.
It's quite simple, so please don't let the orders of magnitude scare you off.
This is a Big F*cking Deal (BFD)!
First, what are we talking about
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There we are, 10 record months in a row.
Most people are still vastly asleep.
Breaking News!
March came in at 1.68°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, making it the 10th consecutive month at an all time recorded high, and the 9th consecutive month breaking the Paris limit of 1.5°C.
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😳What the actual F*CK📈🌡🔥
First time the global average temperature reaches 17°C!
One more month of warming in the pipeline!
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☀️📈BREAKING
@NASA
CERES🌡️📈
Why was 2023 so extreme? The data is finally in!
The world absorbed a lot more sunlight, as less was reflected.
While greenhouse gases kept most of the additional heat in.
Add El Niño and all temperature records shattered!
More 👇🧵
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There is such an extreme amount of ocean surface heat now warming the atmosphere!
Hold on to your hats!
Prepare for a shock!
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🌊🌡️📈🔥
Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies are going through the roof:
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😳 Absorbed Solar from
@NASA
📈
The amount of solar radiation Earth absorbs is now over 2 W/m² higher than from 2000-2009!
It's hard to explain how much heat this represents.
This is the most important graph in the world!
👇
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I hate to say I told you so, but we've been trying to inform the world about the acceleration of global warming for a while now.
Call it an aerosol termination shock.
Call it paying the devil his due when the sulphur clears.
The next 6 months will be shocking!
Global warming acceleration can be traced to decreased aerosols. Full payment in our Faustian bargain is coming due. Looks like our children and grandchildren will be stuck with the tab. Sorry. See July Update:
#ClimateChange
#GlobalWarming
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Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly keeps rapidly breaking new records.
We need to seriously consider the possibility that this warming spike will be worse than the 1997 and 2015 Super El Niños.
This will turn into record atmospheric heat soon.
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🌊🌡️📈
8 months ago, many thought that the record high Sea Surface Temperature anomalies over the 40 million square kilometers of the North Atlantic would be temporary.
After 355 record days and counting, this is not temporary:
🌊🌡️📈
After 348 record high days, the North Atlantic Ocean has reached the same temp anomaly as when this graph went viral around the world last year.
It was long expected, but mostly ignored.
This can help reduce the largest climate uncertainty!
🧵 1/
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Historically, this is the time of the year we should really start to see the effects of El Niño on global Sea Surface Temperatures.
But there is no historic precedence of what's happening now.
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Do people understand how crazy it is that these records are being shattered SIMULTANEOUSLY and CONTINUESLY for months?
If the extreme weather around the world is shocking to you now, hold onto your hats.
2023 is just a warm-up.
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This is such a great visualization of the carbon cycle and of how humanity has completely altered it within a geological instant:
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👇😳 🇦🇶
📉🧊➡️🌊
It really looks like the Antartic sea ice melting season has started with a million km² of sea ice below the previous record low!
If this low is maintained for the next 5 months, there is about 400 W/m² of solar radiation available to heat the oceans instead
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🌊🌡📈 6 months of continuous record high Sea Surface Temperatures
🌍🌡📈 3.5 months of almost all days shattering record high Surface Air Temperatures
🧊➡️🌊 4 months of record low Sea Ice
All happening simultaneously.
This is not gradual global warming!
Has this ever happened before?
🌊🌡️📈Record high Sea Surface Temperatures
🌍🌡️📈Record high global air temperatures
🧊➡️🌊Record low global sea-ice extent
All happening for the same day, May 23rd 2023.
Normally heat flows around the planet and not all records break at once..
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The climate is protesting in Williamsburg, Brooklyn, New York City, USA.
Post your "It's always been raining in NYC" below.
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For those needing a reminder that 365 days of continuous record shattering of an ocean area covering 40 million square kilometers doesn't usually happen, see this:
🌊🌡️📈
The North Atlantic Ocean reached 365 days of continuous record high temperatures!
Thank you to the journalists who have accurately reported on this!
E.g:
Scientists warn Earth warming faster than expected — due to reduction in ship pollution
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The Day After Tomorrow seems to have come to Munich today.
❄️✈️ 🇩🇪
When and how will we know if the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has shut down?
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🌍🌊🌡️📈🔥
Not entirely unexpected, still beyond extreme.
Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly reaches new record daily high of 0.77°C above 1982-2011 mean.
El Niño is starting to show itself amongst natural variability, long term GHG warming and a sulphur termination shock.
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😳😱
This
@NASA
CERES data is making me very anxious.
The Northern Hemisphere used to radiate more heat to space than it absorbed from the sun.
Not anymore.
This causes very rapid warming of the NH, where 7 out 8 billion people live and grow their food!
We better prepare!
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For those still blaming El Niño for the current global record heatwave, please note that its effects are just getting started.
Starting Super El Niño years 1997 and 2015 didn't show any noticeable global surface temperature anomaly for June-July.
This year however..
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Remember Al Gore using a scissor lift to show CO₂ going off the chart?
He's back to show you the North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly:
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The most terrible doomer of all is
@EliotJacobson
:
-He uses reliable data sources.
-Which he accurately analyzes and presents.
-He is honest and open about his methods and corrects mistakes.
- Media around the world use his visualizations.
-Large institutions update theirs
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This is like evidence of a large commet heading towards Earth.
Like in the disaster movies, many choose to completely ignore the data.
😳 Absorbed Solar from
@NASA
📈
The amount of solar radiation Earth absorbs is now over 2 W/m² higher than from 2000-2009!
It's hard to explain how much heat this represents.
This is the most important graph in the world!
👇
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@caseyhe13443255
I have no clue.
I said he doesn't have to stay calm.
Also for the driver his own good, it would be better not to kill someone.
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☀️The sun is brighter than for over 23 years.
This contributes to all the temperature high and sea ice low records being broken.
🌍🌡️📈 🌊🌡️📈 🧊➡️🌊
Bring in the human caused climate change deniers, it's the sun!
But don't get too exited. The current average (global,
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🌍🌡📈
After the hottest day and week, we are now experiencing the hottest month "ever" (in about 120,000 years, based on paleoclimatology).
As we keep warming the planet, we will soon experience global temperatures not seen in the past million years!
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🌊🌡📈
If people only understood how much heat this rapid ocean surface warming represents..
We have to prepare for a lot more extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere Mid Latitudes, where many of us live.
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@GaganKullar1
@BrouwerLease
Even if it were true it wouldn't be a great excuse to kill people..
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🌡️☀️BREAKING☀️🌡️
Record sunshine and heat and over 15,000 deaths in Europe, but no mention of the strongest regional climate forcing!
This is gross negligence.
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This just keeps going up!
Northern Hemisphere Surface Air Temperature is now +1.48°C above the 1979-2000 mean.
The 1979-2000 NH mean temp is already about 0.6°C higher than 1850-1900.
So it looks like the Northern Hemisphere is running well above +2°C!
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On January 1st 2020 new shipping regulation came into effect (
#IMO2020
), decreasing the maximum amount of sulfur in shipping fuels from 3.5% to 0.5%.
From 2020 we see a rapid increase in the amount of solar radiation that's being absorbed by the region highlighted above.
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Wake the f*ck up!
With half the month of data in, its very likely (>95% chance) that May 2024 will be the warmest May on record, extending the streak of record breaking months to 12 in a row:
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For those still in doubt/denial, this is not what gradual warming looks like:
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🌊🌡️📈
The North Atlantic Ocean reached 365 days of continuous record high temperatures!
Thank you to the journalists who have accurately reported on this!
E.g:
Scientists warn Earth warming faster than expected — due to reduction in ship pollution
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The world needs to prepare for the most extreme summer in the history of civilization.
Hope is not a strategy.
The Global Surface Air Temperature of the past 4 months was crazy high!
What's more crazy, is that this four-month average record increase of 0.34°C❗️didn't happen after a strong El Niño, but at the beginning of it!
Watch out for official statements in the coming weeks. 👇
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🌎🌊🌡📈
January ends with the highest Global average Sea Surface Temperature in observational history.
Prepare for a lot of crazy weather in the pipeline!
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Sulfur emissions cooled our planet by about 0.5°C, on a global average.
It cooled more where most of us live.
3.5 years ago we reduced sulfur emissions over the oceans by about 80%.
Oceans heat up faster.
Prepare for more warming, extreme weather and faster sea level rise.
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Mass extinction event! 🪸
"It's looking like the entirety of the Southern Hemisphere is probably going to bleach this year,"
"We are literally sitting on the cusp of the worst bleaching event in the history of the planet,"
Derek Manzello
@CoralReefWatch
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Always watch out for shifting baselines.
Are we already at 1.5°C?
Let's unshift this baseline and see
👇
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